A report by the WMO has said that El Nino may develop in the coming months with low levels experienced from April and strong levels From June to August. The global weather phenomenon refers to when waters in the Pacific Ocean become much warmer than usual.
It is responsible for raising global temperatures and aggravating extreme weather events. El Niño pushes warm water in the Pacific Ocean eastwards, causing the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position.
This produces dryer and warmer weather in the northern US and intense rainfall and flooding in the US Gulf Coast and Southeast. In Europe, it can lead to colder, drier winters in the north and wetter winters in the south.
“The chances of El Nino developing while low in the first half of the year at 15 percent between April and June, gradually increases to 35 percent in May to July.
“Long lead forecasts for June to August indicate a much higher chance of 55 percent of El Nino developing,” a statement from WMO read in part.
Given the record number of people facing acute food insecurity, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is scrutinizing the areas in the globe that are especially vulnerable to El Niño and how anticipatory action could be taken to mitigate its risks.
According to a new report by FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning Systems of the Markets and Trade Division and the Office of Climate Change, Biodiversity and Environment, Southern Africa, Central America and the Caribbean and parts of Asia are of particular concern, as a number of countries in these regions already face high levels of acute food insecurity. Northern areas of South America are also at risk of potential dryness, while Australia normally experiences suppressed rainfall.
Fao has listed Kenya among 20 countries that are at risk of receiving excessive rainfall. This outlook differs from the Kenya Meteorological Department which had warned that the current rains may not be sufficient to wipe out the effects of the drought.
“The level of moisture in the soil is normally zero and so you may have even storms within the first few days of the season but still, they may not cancel the deficit that may be there in the soil…and for the soil moisture to become optimal it requires a sustained kind of rainfall days or amount so that it may come to a point where it is not fluctuating,” the weatherman warned two weeks ago.
“Why would you go for long-maturing maize varieties? Is it not time that we either plant short-maturing maize varieties or go for plants that mature early like beans, potatoes, cassava, many types of legumes, vegetables, millet, sorghum? So many of those can mature very first within 3 or so months you have food and then you can sell the surplus and buy maize,” warned the weatherman.
