Counties identified as being at high risk have been urged to activate anticipatory response mechanisms ahead of a forecasted strong El Niño season expected later this year.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean but has significant effects on weather patterns in Kenya, often resulting in prolonged and above-average rainfall.

Speaking during a webinar titled El Niño 2026: Evolution, Forecast and Potential Impacts, Kenya Meteorological Service Authority Head of Public Weather Services Hannah Kimani said there is an 81 per cent probability that this year’s El Niño will be very strong.

According to Kimani, the projected rainfall could reach levels last witnessed during the devastating 1997 El Niño season.

She explained that the eventual impact of the rains will also depend on the strength of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is expected to remain positive.

“The 2015 was a very strong El Niño, close to 1997 but because the IOD was weakly positive, we did not experience as much rainfall as was experienced in 1997. The outcome of the season will majorly depend on the strength of the IOD,” Kimani said.

She noted that prolonged drought in parts of the country has already affected food security, making preparations for the expected heavy rains even more critical.

Kimani further said there is a 97 per cent chance that the El Niño conditions will persist into early next year.

She projected below-average rainfall over the western half of the country during August and September before rainfall increases significantly later in the season.

“Depressed rainfall is expected over the Western half of the country in August and September. Above average rainfall is expected over most parts in October and November,” she said.

The forecast indicates that while August-September-October is likely to record reduced rainfall in western Kenya, above-average rains are expected across most parts of the country during the September-October-November season.

Principal Climate Scientist Dr. Joyce Kimutai warned that vulnerable populations, including residents of informal settlements, flood-prone areas, arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), as well as communities living near rivers and wetlands, are likely to face the greatest risk.

She added that key sectors such as agriculture, livestock production, transport infrastructure, water supply systems, markets and health facilities could also suffer significant disruptions.

Kimutai noted that flooding often becomes disastrous because of inadequate drainage systems, poor sanitation, weak infrastructure and substandard housing, emphasizing the need for counties to strengthen preparedness measures before the heavy rains begin.

Other presenters during the webinar included Disaster Risk Management and Anticipatory Action expert Zachary Misiani.