Kenya’s long rains are expected to taper off after mid-May, according to the latest forecast from the Meteorological Department.
Acting Kenya Meteorological Department director Edward Muriuki explained that while showers will persist in many regions during the first half of May, rainfall will weaken in the second half, marking the traditional end of the March–May season.
Muriuki noted that this shift is driven by the movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone northwards, reducing moisture over Kenya and ushering in drier conditions.
“The outlook for May indicates that the second half of the month is likely to be drier than average,” he said, pointing to regions such as the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, the Southeastern Lowlands, and Northeastern Kenya.
Despite the easing rains, KenGen assured Kenyans that hydropower dams remain stable. CEO Peter Njenga said all dams are operating within safe limits, with controlled releases where necessary.
He added that increased hydropower output could reduce reliance on costly thermal generation, potentially lowering electricity bills. However, he urged communities downstream, especially along the Tana River, to remain cautious and heed local advisories.
As the rains fade, temperatures are expected to drop.
June will mark the start of Kenya’s cold and dry season, with counties such as Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kericho, Bomet, Uasin Gishu, and Narok bracing for chilly mornings and cloudy days.
July is forecast to be even colder, with widespread cloudiness, light rains, and fog. Still, average temperatures across May to July are projected to remain warmer than normal due to global warming trends.
The forecast comes amid devastating floods and landslides linked to the ongoing rains, which have killed at least 18 people and displaced more than 54,000 households nationwide.
While rainfall will ease in most regions, areas around Lake Victoria, parts of the Rift Valley, northwestern Kenya, and the Coast will continue to receive showers into June.
Counties such as Kakamega, Kisumu, Bungoma, Migori, and Siaya are expected to see near-average rainfall, with heavy downpours in early May.
In the Rift Valley, regions including Nakuru, Narok, and West Pokot will also experience near-average rainfall, while eastern parts of Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi may see below-average showers.
Kenya now faces a delicate transition: easing rains, looming cold, and the ongoing challenge of managing flood impacts while preparing for the dry season ahead.
